The output appeared:
In Microfit 5: . She ordered: REMITTANCES → CONSUMPTION (remittances cause consumption, not vice versa).
Aliyah smiled. "Short-term: strengthen remittance channels. Long-term: break the cointegration by building local savings instruments. The ECM shows you have three quarters to act before a remittance shock becomes a consumption crisis."
Dr. Aliyah Khan was an applied econometrician—a data detective. Her latest case was the "Lagos–London Remittance Puzzle." For five years, official data showed a puzzling disconnect: Nigerian GDP was growing, but household consumption in Lagos was flatlining. The reason, she suspected, lay in the time series properties of her variables. But standard regression was like using a stethoscope on a jet engine. She needed precision. She needed memory. She needed Microfit 5 .
The PDF explained: "The error correction term (ECT) measures the speed of adjustment back to equilibrium after a shock."