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Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
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Summary for Policymakers
SPM
Chapter 1
Chapter T
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter CB9
Glossary
Summary for Policymakers
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I
Introduction
A
Observed changes and impacts
B
Projected changes and risks
C
Implementing responses to ocean and cryosphere change
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Citation
Framing and Context of the Report
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Executive Summary
1.1
Why this Special Report?
1.2
Role of the Ocean and Cryosphere in the Earth System
1.2.1
Ocean and Cryosphere in Earth’s Energy, Water and Biogeochemical Cycles
1.2.2
Interactions Between the Ocean and Cryosphere
1.3
Time Scales, Thresholds and Detection of Ocean and Cryosphere Change
1.4
Changes in the Ocean and Cryosphere
1.4.1
Observed and Projected Changes in the Ocean
1.4.2
Observed and Projected Changes in the Cryosphere
1.5
Risk and Impacts Related to Ocean and Cryosphere Change
1.5.1
Hazards and Opportunities for Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems
1.5.2
Exposure of Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems
1.5.3
Vulnerabilities in Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems
1.6
Addressing the Causes and Consequences of Climate Change for the Ocean and Cryosphere
1.6.1
Mitigation and Adaptation Options in the Ocean and Cryosphere
1.6.2
Adaptation in Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems
1.7
Governance and Institutions
1.8
Knowledge Systems for Understanding and Responding to Change
1.8.1
Scientific Knowledge
1.8.1.1
Ocean and Cryosphere Observations
1.8.1.2
Reanalysis Products
1.8.1.3
Model Simulation Data
1.8.1.4
Palaeoclimate Data
1.8.2
Indigenous Knowledge and Local Knowledge
1.8.3
The Role of Knowledge in People’s Responses to Climate, Ocean and Cryosphere Change
1.9
Approaches Taken in this Special Report
1.9.1
Methodologies Relevant to this Report
1.9.2
Communication of Confidence in Assessment Findings
1.10
Integrated Storyline of this Special Report
A
Acknowledgements
C
Citation
SM
Supplementary Material
Technical Summary
View chapter
TS.0
Introduction
TS.1
Framing and Context of the Report
TS.2
High Mountain Areas
TS.3
Polar Regions
TS.4
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
TS.5
Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
TS.6
Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks
TS.7
Low-lying Islands and Coasts (Integrative Cross-Chapter Box)
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High Mountain Areas
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Executive Summary
2.1
Introduction
2.2
Changes in the Mountain Cryosphere
2.2.1
Atmospheric Drivers of Changes in the Mountain Cryosphere
2.2.1.1
Surface Air Temperature
2.2.1.2
Rainfall and Snowfall
2.2.1.3
Other Meteorological Variables
2.2.2
Snow Cover
2.2.3
Glaciers
2.2.4
Permafrost
2.2.5
Lake and River Ice
2.3
Mountain Social-Ecological Systems: Impacts, Risks and Human Responses
2.3.1
Water Resources
2.3.1.1
Changes in River Runoff
2.3.1.2
Water Quality
2.3.1.3
Key Impacts and Vulnerability
2.3.1.4
Water Governance and Response Measures
2.3.2
Landslide, Avalanche and Flood Hazards
2.3.2.1
Observed and Projected Changes
2.3.2.2
Exposure, Vulnerability and Impacts
2.3.2.3
Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation
2.3.3
Ecosystems
2.3.3.1
Terrestrial Biota
2.3.3.2
Freshwater Biota
2.3.3.3
Ecosystem Services and Adaptation
2.3.4
Infrastructure and Mining
2.3.5
Tourism and Recreation
2.3.6
Cultural Values and Human Well-being
2.3.7
Migration, Habitability and Livelihoods
2.4
International Policy Frameworks and Pathways to Sustainable Development
2.5
Key Gaps in Knowledge and Prospects
A
Acknowledgements
A.2.A
Additional Information on Global and Regional Glacier Mass Change Estimates for 2006–2015
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Citation
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Acknowledgements
SM
Supplementary Material
Polar regions
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Executive Summary
3.1
Introduction: Polar Regions, People and the Planet
3.2
Sea Ice and Polar Oceans: Changes, Consequences and Impacts
3.2.1
Observed Changes in Sea Ice and Ocean
3.2.1.1
Sea Ice
3.2.1.2
Ocean Properties
3.2.1.3
Ocean Circulation
3.2.2
Projected Changes in Sea Ice and Ocean
3.2.2.1
Sea Ice
3.2.2.2
Physical Oceanography
3.2.2.3
Carbon and Ocean Acidification
3.2.3
Impacts on Marine Ecosystems
3.2.3.1
Arctic
3.2.3.2
3.2.3.2 Southern Ocean
3.2.4
Impacts on Social-Ecological Systems
3.2.4.1
Fisheries
3.2.4.2
Tourism
3.2.4.3
Transportation
3.3
Polar Ice Sheets and Glaciers: Changes, Consequences and Impacts
3.3.1
Ice Sheet Changes
3.3.1.1
Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Change
3.3.1.2
Components of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Change
3.3.1.3
Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Change
3.3.1.4
Components of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Change
3.3.1.5
Drivers of ice sheet mass change
3.3.1.6
Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing
3.3.1.7
Ice sheet projections
3.3.2
Polar Glacier Changes
3.3.2.1
Observations, Components of Change, and Drivers
3.3.2.2
Projections
3.3.3
Consequences and Impacts
3.3.3.1
Sea Level
3.3.3.2
Physical Oceanography
3.3.3.3
Biogeochemistry
3.3.3.4
Ecosystems
3.4
Arctic Snow, Freshwater Ice and Permafrost: Changes, Consequences and Impacts
3.4.1
Observations
3.4.1.1
Seasonal Snow Cover
3.4.1.2
Permafrost
3.4.1.3
Freshwater Systems
3.4.2
Projections
3.4.2.1
Seasonal Snow
3.4.2.2
Permafrost
3.4.2.3
Freshwater Systems
3.4.3
Consequences and Impacts
3.4.3.1
Global Climate Feedbacks
3.4.3.2
Ecosystems and their Services
3.4.3.3
Impacts on Social-Ecological Systems
3.5
Human Responses to Climate Change in Polar Regions
3.5.1
The Polar Context for Responding
3.5.2
Responses of Human Sectors
3.5.2.1
Commercial Fisheries
3.5.2.2
Arctic Subsistence Systems
3.5.2.3
Arctic Reindeer Herding
3.5.2.4
Tourism
3.5.2.5
Arctic Non-Renewable Extractive Industries
3.5.2.6
Infrastructure
3.5.2.7
Marine Transportation
3.5.2.8
Arctic Human Health and Well Being
3.5.3
Governance
3.5.3.1
Local to National Governance
3.5.3.2
International Climate Governance and Law: Implications for International Cooperation
3.5.4
Towards Resilient Pathways
3.5.4.1
Knowledge Co-production and Integration
3.5.4.2
Linking Knowledge with Decision Making
3.5.4.3
Resilience-based Ecosystem Stewardship
3.6
Synopsis
3.7
Key Knowledge Gaps and Uncertainties
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Acknowledgements
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Citation
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Supplementary Material
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
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Executive Summary
4.1
Synthesis
4.1.1
Purpose, Scope, and Structure of this Chapter
4.1.2
Future Sea level Rise and Implications for Responses
4.1.3
Sea Level Rise Impacts and Implications for Responses
4.1.4
Response Options, Governance Challenges and Ways Forward
4.2
Physical Basis for Sea Level Change and Associated Hazards
4.2.1
Processes of Sea Level Change
4.2.1.1
Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves
4.2.1.2
Glaciers
4.2.1.3
Ocean Processes
4.2.1.4
Terrestrial Reservoirs
4.2.1.5
Geodynamic Processes
4.2.1.6
Extreme Sea Level Events
4.2.2
Observed Changes in Sea Level (Past and Present)
4.2.2.1
Global Mean Sea Level Changes During the Instrumental Period
4.2.2.2
Contributions to Global Mean Sea Level Change During the Instrumental Period
4.2.2.3
Regional Sea Level Changes During the Instrumental Period
4.2.2.4
Local Coastal Sea Level
4.2.2.5
4.2.2.5 Attribution of Sea Level Change to Anthropogenic Forcing
4.2.3
Projections of Sea Level Change
4.2.3.1
Contribution of Ice Sheets to GMSL
4.2.3.2
Global and Regional Projections of Sea Level Rise
4.2.3.3
Probabilistic Sea Level Projections
4.2.3.4
Changes in Extreme Sea Level events
4.2.3.5
Long-Term Scenarios, Beyond 2100
4.3
Exposure, Vulnerability, Impacts and Risk Related to Sea Level Rise
4.3.1
Introduction
4.3.2
Dimensions of Exposure and Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise
4.3.2.1
Point of Departure
4.3.2.2
Settlement Trends
4.3.2.4
Other Human Dimensions
4.3.2.5
Towards a Synthetic Understanding of the Drivers of Exposure and Vulnerability
4.3.2.3
Terrestrial Processes Shaping Coastal Exposure and Vulnerability
4.3.3
Observed Impacts, and Current and Future Risk of Sea Level Rise
4.3.3.1
Attribution of Observed Physical Changes to Sea Level Rise
4.3.3.2
Submergence and Flooding of Coastal Areas
4.3.3.3
Coastal Erosion and Projected Global Impacts of Enhanced Erosion on Human Systems
4.3.3.4
Salinisation
4.3.3.5
Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services
4.3.3.6
Human Activities
4.3.4
Conclusion on Coastal Risk: Reasons for Concern and Future Risks
4.3.4.1
Methodological Advances
4.3.4.2
Key Findings on Future Risks and Adaptation Benefits
4.4.
Responding to Sea Level Rise
4.4.1
Introduction
4.4.2
Observed and Projected Responses, their Costs, Benefits, Co-benefits, Drawbacks, Efficiency and Governance
4.4.2.1
Types of Responses and Framework for Assessment
4.4.2.2
Hard and Sediment-Based Protection
4.4.2.3
Ecosystem-based Adaptation
4.4.2.4
Advance
4.4.2.5
Accommodation
4.4.2.6
Retreat
4.4.3
Governance challenges in responding to sea level rise
4.4.3.1
Introduction
4.4.3.2
Understanding Barriers to Adaptation as Governance Challenges
4.4.3.3
Governance Challenges in the Face of Sea Level Rise
4.4.4
Planning, Engagement and Decision Tools for Choosing Responses
4.4.4.1
Introduction
4.4.4.2
Planning, Public Participation and Conflict Resolution in the Face of SLR
4.4.4.3
Decision Analysis Methods
4.4.5
Enabling Conditions and Lessons Learned From ‘Practice’
4.4.6
Towards Climate Resilient Development Pathways
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Supplementary Material
Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities
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Executive Summary
5.1
Introduction
5.2
Changing Ocean and Biodiversity
5.2.1
Introduction
5.2.2
Changes in Physical and Biogeochemical Properties
5.2.2.1
Introduction to Changing Open Ocean
5.2.2.2
Changing Temperature, Salinity, Circulation
5.2.2.3
Changes in Ocean Carbon
5.2.2.4
Changing Ocean Oxygen
5.2.2.5
Changing Ocean Nutrients
5.2.2.6
Changing Ocean Primary and Export Production
5.2.3
Impacts on Pelagic Ecosystems
5.2.3.1
The Epipelagic Ocean
5.2.3.2
The Deep Pelagic Ocean
5.2.4
Impacts on Deep Seafloor Systems
5.2.4.1
Changes on the Deep Seafloor
5.2.4.2
Open Ocean Seafloor - Abyssal Plains (3000-6000 m)
5.2.4.3
Bathyal Ecosystems (200–3000 m)
5.2.4.4
Chemosynthetic Ecosystems
5.2.5
Risk Assessment of Open Ocean Ecosystems
5.3
Changing Coastal Ecosystems and Biodiversity
5.3.1
Estuaries
5.3.2
Coastal Wetlands (Salt Marshes, Seagrass Meadows and Mangrove Forests)
5.3.3
Sandy Beaches
5.3.4
Coral Reefs
5.3.5
Rocky Shores
5.3.6
Kelp Forests
5.3.7
Risk Assessment for Coastal Ecosystems
5.4
Changing Marine Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being
5.4.1
Changes in Key Ecosystem Services
5.4.1.1
Provisioning Services
5.4.1.2
Regulating Services
5.4.1.3
Supporting Services
5.4.1.4
Cultural Services
5.4.2
Climate Risk, Vulnerability and Exposure of Human Communities and their Well-being
5.4.2.1
Human Health and Environmental Health
5.4.2.2
Cultural and Other Social Dimensions
5.4.2.3
Monetary and Material Wealth
5.4.2.4
Risk and Opportunities for Ocean Economy
5.4.2.5
Impacts of Changing Ocean on Sustainable Development Goals
5.5
Risk-reduction Responses and their Governance
5.5.1
Ocean-based Mitigation
5.5.1.1
Context for Blue Carbon and Overview Assessment
5.5.1.2
Climate Mitigation in the Coastal Ocean
5.5.1.3
Climate Mitigation in the Open Ocean
5.5.2
Ocean-based Adaptation
5.5.2.1
Ecosystem-based Adaptation
5.5.2.2
Human Systems
5.5.2.3
Ocean-based Climate Change Adaptation Frameworks
5.5.2.4
The Role of Education and Local Knowledge in Adapting to Climate Change.
5.5.2.5
Costs and Limits for Coastal Climate Change Adaptation
5.5.2.6
Summary
5.5.3
Governance Across All Scales
5.6
Synthesis
5.7
Key Uncertainties and Gaps
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Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks
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Executive Summary
6.1
Introduction
6.1.1
Definitions of Principal Terms
6.2
Climate Change influences on Abrupt Changes, Irreversibility, Tipping Points and Extreme Events
6.2.1
Introduction
6.2.2
Recent Anomalous Extreme Climate Events and their Causes
6.3
Changes in Tracks, Intensity, and Frequency of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones and Associated Sea Surface Dynamics
6.3.1
Changes in Storms and Associated Sea Surface Dynamics
6.3.1.1
Tropical Cyclones
6.3.1.2
Extratropical Cyclones and Blocking
6.3.1.3
Waves and Extreme Sea Levels
6.3.2
Impacts
6.3.3
Risk Management and Adaptation
6.4
Marine Heatwaves and their Implications
6.4.1
Observations and Key Processes, Detection and Attribution, Projections
6.4.1.1
Recent Documented MHWs and Key Driving Mechanisms
6.4.1.2
Detection and Attribution of MHW Events
6.4.1.3
Future Changes
6.4.2
Impacts on Natural, Physical and Human Systems
6.4.2.1
Impacts on Marine Organisms and Ecosystems
6.4.2.2
Impacts on the Physical System
6.4.2.3
Impacts on the Human System
6.4.3
Risk Management and Adaptation, Monitoring and Early Warning Systems
6.5
Extreme ENSO Events and Other Modes of Interannual Climate Variability
6.5.1
Key Processes and Feedbacks, Observations, Detection and Attribution, Projections
6.5.1.1
Extreme El Niño, La Niña
6.5.1.2
Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming and Changes in Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Events
6.5.2
Impacts on Human and Natural Systems
6.5.3
Risk Management and Adaptation
6.6
Inter-Ocean Exchanges and Global Change
6.6.1
Key Processes and Feedbacks, Observations, Detection and Attribution, Projections
6.6.2
Impacts on Natural and Human Systems
6.7
Risks of Abrupt Change in Ocean Circulation and Potential Consequences
6.7.1
Key Processes and Feedbacks, Observations, Detection and Attribution, Projections
6.7.1.1
Observational and Model Understanding of Atlantic Ocean Circulation Changes
6.7.1.2
Role of GIS Melting and their Freshwater Release Sources
6.7.2
Impacts on Climate, Natural and Human Systems
6.7.3
Risk Management and Adaptation
6.8
Compound Events and Cascading Impacts
6.8.1
Concepts
6.8.2
Multiple Hazards
6.8.3
Cascading Impacts on Ecosystems
6.8.4
Cascading Impacts on Social Systems
6.8.5
Risk Management and Adaptation, Sustainable and Resilient Pathways
6.8.6
Global Impact of Tipping Points
6.9
Governance and Policy Options, Risk Management, Including Disaster Risk Reduction and Enhancing Resilience
6.9.1
Decision Making for Abrupt Change and Extreme Events
6.9.2
Transformative Governance and Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation
6.10
Knowledge Gaps
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Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on Low-lying Islands and Coasts
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Executive Summary
I
Introduction
D
Drivers of Impacts and Risks
O
Observed and Projected Impacts on Geographies and Major Sectors
R
Responses: Adaptation Strategies in Practice
C
Conclusions
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Citation
Glossary
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